How will current market developments affect you? The thought leaders at Fifth Third Bank can help make sense of it all. Listen to the Economic Beat as they discuss what happened last week and what they expect will be the focus of this week. Click the button below to listen or read the transcript to this week's Economic Beat.
Past Economic Beats
October 25, 2021
Job levels to return but supply constraints to persist longer than expected
The Fed has signaled it will likely begin to taper its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program as early as next month. About half of Fed policymakers believe a rate hike will likely be warranted in 2022.
October 18, 2021
Small business optimism drops to the lowest level since March
Equities turned around this week, as investors were encouraged by stronger than expected retail sales and solid corporate earnings, despite the continued spike in commodities prices and concerns about inflation.
October 4, 2021
U.S. stocks have enjoyed gains through the first three quarters of the year
Corporate updates continued to point to robust demand last week, while COVID-19 cases in the US continued to trend lower.
September 27, 2021
U.S. equities finished last week in positive territory
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he believed the U.S. economy had already surpassed the central bank’s goals for inflation, and said a "reasonably good" September jobs report would suggest that the economy is strong enough to endure a reduction in Fed bond purchases.
September 20, 2021
Lingering supply chain issues continue to raise concerns
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that small business optimism unexpectedly rose in August despite hiring difficulties and supply chain disruptions. The report estimated that Hurricane Ida subtracted 0.3 percentage points due to plant closures.
September 13, 2021
There are now more job openings than people looking for work in the U.S.
The initial jobless claims figure was a new pandemic low, signaling the Delta variant has not caused layoffs. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report rose to an all-time high of 10.9 million openings.
August 30, 2021
The 3 major U.S. benchmarks bounced back last week
The Jackson Hole Conference went according to plan as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, announced the Fed’s tapering which will most likely begin before year-end. He confirmed that the taper will not immediately result in a rate hike, saying that there is "much ground to cover" before any rate increase.
August 23, 2021
Major U.S. equity indices finished mostly lower last week
Major U.S. equity indices finished mostly lower last week, while investors remain concerned about the path forward for economic growth as the delta variant continues to spread in the U.S. and abroad.
August 16, 2021
The Delta variant is having a negative impact on sentiment
The Consumer Price Index showed a slowing of inflationary pressures, even as year-over-year gains remain elevated at 5.4 percent. At the same time, the producer price index showed a 7.8 percent annual increase in wholesale prices, half a percent higher than expected.
August 9th, 2021
Employment continues to grow in the United States
Second quarter 2021 earnings season continued to ramp up last week, with nearly 90% of the S&P 500 now having reported, with very strong results relative to expectations.
August 2, 2021
Consumer spending jumped an annualized 11.8% in Q2
Second quarter earnings season continued with roughly 60% of S&P 500 Index companies now having reported results. According to data from FactSet, 88% of companies that have reported beat expectations for each earnings and revenue results.
July 26, 2021
The S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high close on Friday
Earnings season continued last week with most companies highlighting very strong demand due to the combination of the vaccine rollout, monetary and fiscal stimulus, and economic rejuvenation.
July 19, 2021
The consumer price index rose in June by the most since 2008
The National Federation for Independent Business released its optimism index, which rose 2.9 points to 102.5 in June, an eight month high. A larger share of small business owners expected the economy to improve, while more said they plan to expand and hire.
July 12, 2021
U.S. job openings rose to a record in May
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that officials plan to discuss tapering asset purchases in the coming months. Consensus expectations remain that the Fed will begin tapering early next year and that officials will not raise interest rates until at least 2023.
June 28, 2021
Major U.S. equity benchmarks finished higher last week
The domestic economic calendar last week showed existing home sales were stronger than expected, but still down 0.9%. This is a decline for the fourth straight week.
June 21, 2021
U.S equities finished lower last week
The Fed voted to keep the fed funds rate unchanged, as widely expected. They also began conversations about the tapering of bond purchases and they maintained their stance that inflation will be transitory.
June 14, 2021
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 5.0% year-over-year
While recent data suggest that consumer prices are rising, the central bank has noted on multiple occasions that it believes recent readings are “transitory” or short-term in nature due to a combination of a sharp pick-up in demand as well as low inventory levels coming out of 2020’s recession.
June 7, 2021
Major U.S. equity indices finished mostly higher last week
Major U.S. equity indices finished mostly higher last week. Themes in markets last week included optimistic economic data, lingering inflation concerns and Reddit-fueled speculative trading.
May 24, 2021
Major U.S. Equity Indices Were Mixed Last Week
Major U.S. equity indices were mixed last week, with the benchmark S&P 500 Index declining for a second straight week, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to finish with a gain.
May 17, 2021
U.S. Small Business Optimism Continues To Rise
U.S. small business optimism rose to a five-month high, the third consecutive monthly increase. The tight labor market remained in focus with record JOLTS job openings in March and the latest NFIB Small Business Index noting record difficulty in filling jobs.
May 10, 2021
Many First Quarter Earnings Surpass Estimates
As of Friday’s close, about 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter earnings. Of the earnings results, 86% of reports have surpassed estimates, which is a record high.
May 3, 2021
Consumer Spending Rose 10.7%
First quarter U.S. GDP rose at a 6.4 percent annualized rate – strong growth, although a bit lighter than the expected growth rate of 6.7 percent. Consumer spending, which is the largest component of GDP, rose at an annualized rate of 10.7 percent.
April 26, 2021
Investors Digested Earnings Releases
Lingering COVID-19 economic restrictions, vaccine distribution and administration data, government fiscal stimulus measures, central bank policy actions and inflation measures are among the topics being monitored.
April 19, 2021
Positive Economic Data Across the Board
Banks and other financial stocks kicked off earnings season last week, with big financials mostly reporting solid gains—and economic data was positive across the board.
April 12, 2021
Encouraging Economic Data
Reassuring dovish comments from Federal Reserve meeting minutes, positive U.S. vaccination momentum, as well as encouraging economic data seemed to be the key drivers for the financial markets. And investors were encouraged as Federal Reserve officials provided reassurance that policy will remain supportive.
April 5, 2021
White House Releases Infrastructure Plan Details
Despite a short week for markets, the U.S. economic calendar was robust and generally upbeat. The White House also released details of its infrastructure plan worth roughly $2.25 trillion over eight years.
March 29, 2021
Another Volatile Week for Financial Markets
Major global equity benchmarks were mixed last week in another volatile week for financial markets, including a massive cargo ship running aground in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in the waterway.
March 22, 2021
Continued Vaccine Rollout in U.S. and Europe
Last week’s COVID-19 headlines focused largely on the continued rollout of the vaccine in the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. is now administering about 2.5 million shots per day, while Europe is facing vaccine distribution issues and higher case counts.
March 15, 2021
Stimulus Bill Signed into Law
President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill was signed into law on Thursday and checks began going out over the weekend. The economic data coming in continues to paint a positive landscape, both for stocks and the overall economy.
March 8, 2021
U.S. Senate Passes American Rescue Plan
The U.S. Senate passed President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan over the weekend, a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to support the U.S. economy amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
March 1, 2021
COVID-19 Trends Improve and Fiscal Stimulus Expectations
The ongoing bear market in bonds may be driven by increasing inflation expectations amid a strong macroeconomic environment, solid corporate earnings, improving COVID-19 trends and expectations for more fiscal stimulus.
February 22, 2021
Stimulus Talks Continue, U.S. Stock Indices End Mostly Lower
In a shortened trading week due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, there was a lot of activity for investors to digest. Stimulus talks continued and most major U.S. stock indices ended lower.
February 8, 2021
Investors Encouraged by Potential Fiscal Stimulus
Investors were encouraged by the potential for additional fiscal stimulus and a continued decline in COVID-19 cases. Stimulus expectations ratcheted higher after the U.S. Congress cleared a major hurdle that will allow Democrats to move an economic relief package without Republican votes.
February 1, 2021
Market Movement Comes from Unlikely Source
Most major global equity benchmarks fell last week, which can somewhat be attributed to concerns that retail trading was creating havoc. The major positive themes of prospects for domestic fiscal stimulus, vaccine optimism, and strong corporate earnings weren't enough to lift the markets.
January 25, 2021
All Major Indices Hit Fresh All-Time Highs
In a shortened trading week that saw the ushering in of the Biden administration, all major indices hit fresh all-time highs. Investors anxiously wait for the next round of fiscal stimulus to get approved by Congress.
January 11, 2021
Week Ahead Brings Several Economic Updates
Democrats won two seats in Georgia’s runoff elections, leaving the incoming Senate split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker vote. Markets reacted positively to the news, on expectations for more stimulus and infrastructure spending.
December 14, 2020
Weekly Jobless Claims Reach Three-month High
After a good start for equity markets last week, most U.S. stock indices moved lower. The NFIB Small Business Optimism release told us small business optimism fell more than expected. Continuing Jobless Claims rose and weekly jobless claims moved to a three-month high.
December 7, 2020
Optimism Around Vaccines Remains Elevated
Most major U.S. equity benchmarks finished last week higher as optimism around the path for COVID-19 vaccines remained elevated. And the big focus on the domestic economic calendar was last Friday's labor market report, with disappointing jobs numbers.
November 23, 2020
Vaccine Progress Offset by Worsening COVID-19 Rates
News on vaccine progress continued to be upbeat, but was offset by worsening COVID-19 infection rates and increased state and local restrictions across the country to help slow the spread.
November 16, 2020
Vaccine Announcements Boost U.S. Equities
Pfizer and BioNTech announced their COVID vaccine candidate demonstrated an efficacy rate above 90%, positively impacting U.S. equities.
November 9, 2020
Major U.S. Equity Benchmarks Rally
Major U.S. equity benchmarks rallied last week, leading the S&P 500 Index to its best weekly performance since April. Vaccine optimism, better-than-expected corporate earnings results, strong economic releases and a commitment to continued support from the Federal Reserve also helped the rally.
November 2, 2020
Election Week in the United States
It is election week in the United States, and markets are expected focus almost exclusively on the outcome of the presidential election and the races that will determine the control of the Senate.
October 5, 2020
Markets React to President's COVID Diagnosis
U.S. equities ended higher last week, despite increased volatility and a selloff Friday on news that President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
September 28, 2020
Election Uncertainty Weighs on Markets
Last week U.S. equities finished mostly lower, with several factors contributing to the decline—including mounting doubts about the likelihood of another fiscal stimulus bill before the election.
September 21, 2020
Fed chair Jerome Powell Outlines Significant New Policy
Fed chair Jerome Powell outlined a significant new policy framework for the central bank, permitting inflation over two percent for an extended period. And the week’s economic releases were generally disappointing.
September 14, 2020
S&P 500 Index Lower for Second Straight Week
U.S. equities fell last week, sending the S&P 500 Index lower for a second straight week, the first back-to-back weekly declines for the benchmark index since late April/early May.
August 31, 2020
Fed Shifts to More Flexible Inflation Approach
U.S. equities rose last week as investors were encouraged by COVID-19 vaccine optimism and an announcement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on a shift to a more flexible inflation approach.
August 24, 2020
Unemployment Levels Lowest Since Early April
U.S. COVID-19 cases declined last week, vaccine development continued to progress, and economic releases were favorable—all supportive of a good outcome in equity markets last week. And unemployment claims went up unexpectedly by 135,000 for the week ending August 15th to a seasonally adjusted 1.1 million.
August 17, 2020
Stimulus Measures, Vaccine Optimism, and Positive Economic Data
Tailwind of massive stimulus measures, vaccine optimism, and positive economic data drove markets last week. And presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as his running mate seemed to have little impact on market sentiment.
August 10, 2020
Strong Economic Data, Shrugging Off Relief Package Stalemate
The White House and congressional Democrats remained far apart in relief package negotiations last week, and tensions continued to flare up between the U.S. and China—though markets largely ignored this concern.
August 3, 2020
Second-half Uncertainty Leading to Investor Caution
Vaccine optimism overshadowed a continued uptick in coronavirus infections and the re-imposition of some mitigation measures. In addition, consensus expectations continued to revolve around a fifth coronavirus relief package that could address some of the dampened recovery momentum.
July 27, 2020
Investors Wary of Economy's Ability to Rebound
U.S. equities snapped a three-week winning streak, falling amid investor concerns about rising tensions between the U.S. and China, along with continued worries about the economic recovery. The U.S. dollar slid to its weakest level since January.